10 Minutes with Bob Prechter
Imagine if you could spend ten minutes with Bob Prechter. What would you ask him? Peabody Award winning journalist Don Shelby had just such an opportunity on the day the U.S. House of Representatives voted down the bailout bill. Don asked Bob about classic socionomic subjects like herding, the Wave Principle, and the government’s inability to influence long-term social trends. You can listen to the conversation now.
Socionomic Election Headquarters
Read Bob Prechter’s take on elections in an article from The Market Technician, listen to an interview with socionomist Alan Hall, and watch a clip about presidential politics from the documentary History’s Hidden Engine. A socionomics sign-up is FREE; the socionomic experience begins now.
Progress in Socionomics: Fall Issue Online
In the latest issue of Progress in Socionomics you’ll read about how socionomics can be used to predict trends in military aggression, a professor's take on the socionomics of The Dark Knight, a novelist whose lead character is a socionomist, and much more! You can read the entire issue free online.
Gas Shortage: Herding or Economics?
As the southeastern U.S. experiences the harshest gas shortage since the 1970's, the race to explain it continues. With theories ranging from hurricanes, pipeline damage, and even human herding, there's more finger pointing going on than at a Congressional investigation into Wall Street fraud. The Socionomics Institute's Robert Prechter examines the evidence to reveal the true cause of the shortage and offers an elegantly simple solution. Read Prechter's insights now.
Socionomics vs. Socioeconomics
When writing about socionomics, people sometimes give it the misnomer “socioeconomics.” In case you have trouble keeping the two straight, here are the key differences between the two fields.
The Great Fashion Cover-Up
An article on CNN.com declares that “a shocking trend is gaining ground in teen dressing: modesty.” We here at the Socionomics Institute aren’t shocked in the least. It’s an old Wall Street truism that hemlines rise and fall with the stock market. Why? Because social mood drives fashion trends and the markets. As Pete Kendall noted back in September 2002, “The basic impulse of fashion in a declining phase is to cover up.” Fashion is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to social mood’s impact on pop culture.
Subway System Sends Message About Mood
Our friend Kevin Depew at Minyanville.com has been writing about socionomics for quite some time. His latest piece illustrates the effects of a declining social mood by comparing the 1990's New York City "Crime Crash" with the NYC subway system's current state of disrepair. Read Kevin's latest socionomic insights here.
Socionomics Mailbag
Dr. Dennis Elam's recent blog post suggests that a negative social mood is the driving force behind the popularity accorded Twilight, a young adult novel series that revolves around the relationship between a teen girl and a vampire. Indeed, "magical thinking" is a hallmark of bear markets. Read what Pete Kendall had to say about the shift in pop culture fare in this Socionomics Classic
A Burger Bankruptcy
Steven Silberberg, PhD brought an article in the New York Times to our attention. It’s a piece about how retailers and restaurant chains are struggling to keep their doors open as the economy heads south. The article notes that Mervyns and the parent company of Bennigans have both filed for bankruptcy. In 1998, Robert Prechter made a forecast for the bankruptcy rate that still resonates a decade later. Read this Socionomics Classic from the Elliott Wave Theorist
Fractals in the Human Social Experience
In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that aggregate stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. In a series of books and articles published from 1938 to 1946, he described the stock market as a fractal. The stock market is just one area of the human social experience where fractals can be found. Read More.
Journal of Behavioral Finance Publishes Paper by Prechter & Parker
The Journal of Behavioral Finance has published a paper by Robert R. Prechter, Jr., Executive Director of the Socionomics Institute, and Wayne D. Parker, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Socionomics Foundation. The paper’s citation is: Prechter, Robert R., Jr., and Wayne D. Parker (2007). “The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective.” Journal of Behavioral Finance, 8(2), pp. 84-108. You may view the abstract and purchase subscriptions to the Journal here. Back issues are also available. We recommend this journal for anyone interested in the psychology of financial markets. For more information, read the press release at the Socionomics Foundation’s website at www.socionomics.org/press/fin_econ.aspx.
Air Force Major Writes About Socionomics
Maj. Tyson Hummel of the Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base has permitted the Socionomics Foundation to post an excerpt from his master's thesis. It is a fascinating application of socionomics for America's economic and military future, titled "Is the Science of Socionomics Able to Portend a Change in the United States’ Economic Might?" Read it at www.socionomics.org/pdf/Hummel_US_Econ.pdf.
Socionomics Foundation Wins National Research Competition
The American Political Science Association recently announced that the Socionomics Foundation's questions about social mood were among those chosen from more than 1,100 proposed queries to be included an upcoming research project funded by the National Science Foundation. To read the press release concerning the award, visit www.socionomics.org/press/ANES.
Making History: An Interview with Film Director David Edmond Moore
David Edmond Moore’s documentary, History's Hidden Engine, breaks new ground in its exploration of socionomic theory. The film, which is freely available for viewing online, features interviews with many of the pioneers in this expanding field. We turned the tables and interviewed David about his thoughts on making the film.
Q: What inspired you to create a documentary on socionomics?
A: I first became interested in socionomics after reading Bob Prechter's report, "Popular Culture and The Stock Market." It was the first time I had heard of the Wave Principle. I found it remarkable that the stock market correlated with trends in fashion, movies and music. I wasn't really a finance guy. I was just out of school, and pop culture was what interested me. What drove it home for me was that after reading the report I noticed a correlation between the crash in 1987 and a change in the music of U2 and R.E.M. Both groups went from being just rock bands to releasing two very political albums in 87. Later still, after the market recovered from the 87 crash and we extended the massive bull market through the late 80s and 90s, U2 and R.E.M. released "happy" albums. U2 went so far as to call their album Pop. You can't say it any clearer.
Continue reading the interview.
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